Predicting knee replacement in participants eligible for disease-modifying osteoarthritis drug treatment with structural endpoints.

Objective: Evaluate associations between 2-year change in radiographic or quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) structural measures, and knee replacement (KR), within a subsequent 7-year follow-up period.

Method: Participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were selected based on potential eligibility criteria for a disease-modifying osteoarthritis (OA) drug trial: Kellgren-Lawrence grade 2 or 3; medial minimum joint space width (mJSW) ≥2.5 mm; knee pain at worst 4-9 in the past 30 days on an 11-point scale, or 0-3 if medication was taken for joint pain; and availability of structural measures over 2 years. Mean 2-year change in structural measures was estimated and compared with two-sample independent t-tests for KR and no KR. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated using 2-year change in structural measures for prediction of future KR outcomes.

Results: Among 627 participants, 107 knees underwent KR during a median follow-up of 6.7 years after the 2-year imaging period. Knees that received KR during follow-up had a greater mean loss of cartilage thickness in the total femorotibial joint and medial femorotibial compartment on qMRI, as well as decline in medial fixed joint space width on radiographs, compared with knees that did not receive KR. These imaging measures had similar, although modest discrimination for future KR (AUC 0.62, 0.60, and 0.61, respectively).

Conclusions: 2-year changes in qMRI femorotibial cartilage thickness and radiographic JSW measures had similar ability to discriminate future KR in participants with knee OA, suggesting that these measures are comparable biomarkers/surrogate endpoints of structural progression.